Cholera is an acute bacterial disease caused by Vibrio cholerae that can lead to severe diarrhea, vomiting, and even death. Although only 10% of cholera cases are considered severe, identifying environmental conditions that could cause cholera – and addressing those conditions through solutions-oriented approaches – would undoubtedly improve public health. These approaches can include water sanitation measures and community preparedness should an outbreak occur, among others.
Cholera spreads through contaminated food, drinking water, or the feces of an infected individual. Areas of the world with poorer sewer systems, or unsafe food and water systems, have a heightened infection risk.
As NASA shares, the agency has been monitoring potential cholera outbreaks for years through funding from the Earth Action Program. NASA satellites identify regions at high-risk of cholera outbreak by observing environmental conditions. This information is shared with workers on the ground; for example, over the last six years, international aid groups in Yemen, alongside British government workers, began forecasting cholera outbreaks to enhance preparation and curb illness.
How Does the Cholera Forecasting Tool Work?
For Yemeni predictions, the forecasting tool first begins by dividing Yemen into small regions. Think the size of the average county in the United States. From here, the tool blends information from satellite observations (precipitation levels, what temperature the air and ocean are, how much plankton is in the ocean) with a certain area’s sanitation, water, and food infrastructure.
Tests performed on the forecasting tool discovered that the forecasting tool was 85-92% accurate and effective in predicting the scope of cholera outbreaks in Yemen. Since launching the tool, the forecasting model has also been used to predict outbreaks and assess risk in Haiti, India, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Ghana.
This tool’s power lies in its ability to mobilize humanitarian aid and effort where and when it is needed. Moving forward, NASA hopes that the forecasting tool can be utilized to support the UN Global Task Force in reducing cholera spread globally.
Outside of the forecasting tool, NASA also developed a publicly available Cholera Prediction Hub tool, and is working to develop an Android-based app that would share information on cholera risk, closest local hospitals, and other relevant information to improve outcomes should outbreaks occur.
